The Nature of Conflict and Today’s Civilizational War – Part 2

In addition to the cultural war between the West and extremist Islam, there is also a war churning within the Middle East between Arab and Persian cultures under the cover of protests against ‘oppressive governments.’  For 2,500 years, Persia/Iran has been attempting to bring the Middle East (and the rest of the world) under its control.  Just two days ago, an Iranian diplomat was ordered to leave Bahrain for engaging in espionage.

While ostensibly protests around the Middle East have been pro-democracy focused, the common thread throughout these is the behind-the-scenes actions of Islamic extremists riding (and in some cases guiding) the wave of populist revolt against leaders who were intent on preventing its spread. Since mid-January we have seen the ousting of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (14 January), Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (11 February), and the soon to be ousting Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.  Libyan leader Muamar Gaddafhi is in the midst of a civil war aimed at his departure extremism. 

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, long suppressed by Mubarak, is now out in the open and starting a political party to take part in the next elections.  Over 100,000 protested in Yemen’s capital Sana’a, a country fighting one of the most active Al Qaeda offshoots in the world, a secessionist uprising in the south, and a Shi’ite rebellion in the north.  In Libya, Al Qaeda operatives are among the ‘rebel’ fighters attempting to remove Gaddafhi who has spent decades stamping out extremists.  In moves certain to concern Israel, 70 Islamist hardliners were arrested in Jordan after wounding 83 police in attacks.

This rapid spread of protests has been termed the “Tunisian Virus.”  The number and rapidity of such protests is somewhat surprising, and one is tempted to ask, “Qui bono?”  From my perspective, the country which benefits most is Iran.

The spreading populist revolution, however, is a double edged sword.  Iran looks to Syria to be its proxy in the Middle East and the hammer against Israel.  In Syria, a country in which Hafez al-Assad had no qualms about killing thousands of Muslim Brotherhood followers, protests against his son’s government began on 26 January.  Today at least 23 protesters were killed after Friday prayers.  Of significance, a statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down in a move similar to Iraqis tearing down the statues of Saddam.  Assad the younger has had to use military forces to put down current protests, further inflaming the populace.  If Syria goes down, then Iran loses a significant ally and base to support Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as a blow to its ability to influence events.  The rising protests within Iran itself against Ahmedinejad’s regime (hundreds of thousands protesting in the streets) add even more pressure to act quickly to achieve success.

A potential sign of this pressure’s effect is Hamas and Fatah, after four years of internecine conflict, have made up and are forming a caretaker government until elections can be held.  This turn of events places a dagger at the throat of Israel.  If Egypt follows through with threats by various Presidential candidates to end the peace, then expect Israel to react rapidly and vigorously.

The question is whether or not Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will win the race against his own internal opposition before the extremist beast unleashed in the rest of the Middle East consumes the rest of the governments opposed to him.

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

What does it say about a leader who issues official proclamations for every significant Muslim holiday (e.g., Ramadan, Eid-ul-Fitr, Hajj, Eid-ul-Adha) and yet says nothing about Easter?  I could not care less what the President's religion is.  What I do care about is the pattern of behavior expressed towards the American people and the nation.  More and more, it seems that no one really knows what he believes--other than practicing political taqiyya when it comes to his speeches.  He speaks of the importance of energy independence, and yet his minions in the EPA deny Shell Oil off shore drilling permits in Alaskan waters.

From now until 2012, pay no attention to the words--watch the actions.  You won't like what you see.

Soak the Rich!!!

Graphic from rushlimbaugh.com via Hot Air Pundit

Oh wait... we already are.

So how's that class warfare working out for you?

Hat tip: The Other McCain

Phrase of the Day/Week/Month/Whenever

"Deja Moo" -- The feeling that you've heard this bullshit before

Other forms of this phrase are:

"Deja Poo" -- The feeling that this bird has shit on you before
"Deja Fu" -- The feeling that this ninja has beaten the shit out of you before
"Deja Screw" -- The feeling that you've heard this performance appraisal before
"Deja Zoo" -- The feeling that you've worked at this crazy place before
"Deja Blues" -- The feeling that you grew up in New Orleans playing a guitar and harmonica
"Deja Who" -- The feeling that you've heard this rock band before

How The Media Sets the Narrative

Ace is on fire today describing how the media uses the storyline to set a narrative which furthers their agenda.  He uses Fred Thompson's description of how the media falsely set the 'narrative' of his Presidential campaign in 2008 (the "Dark Horse" effect).   From Fred's tale, Ace came to what was for him a significant insight:

But the point is that these Narratives are begun, and started, to disguise laziness, incompetence, and ignorance. If we don't know the reason, and if we are too lazy or not skilled enough to find a good answer, we are prey to simplistic little fakey make-'em-ups. Not because they're compelling, and not because they're true -- the media knows half of the shit they say isn't true, like forever claiming Scooter Libby "leaked" the identity of Valerie Plame without noting it was liberal-leaning-RINO in good standing Richard Armitage who actually leaked it first-- but because it's easy and simple.

Easy and simple. Scooter Libby leaked that name; Fred Thompson doesn't have fire in his belly.

So this is my insight. I did warn you it was sort of obvious, didn't I? Yes, it's obvious, but for me, my own personal glomming on to an easy, simple narrative to explain that which is difficult to explain really brought this home: We all -- but especially the media -- make up The Narrative to paper over our insufficient knowledge.

Go read Ace's post for an excellent point regarding how the facts aren't necessary to influence people.

Happy Earth Day!

Yes, a gracious Earth Day to you all, dear comrades!  As I type this under the bleak light of a killer CFL lightbulb, trying not to breath in the carcinogenic fumes being released by the heat and hoping that it doesn't catch fire in socket, it is only fitting that we pause to give thanks to the inspirations for this day:

Ira Einhorn (AKA the Unicorn Killer)

Antiwar activist Ira claimed to be the one who started Earth Day (actually created by Wisconsin Senator Gaylord Nelson).  He celebrated years later by killing his girlfriend Holly Maddux and composting her body in his closet.  Being the standup guy that he is, he fled the country and was on the lam for over 20 years.

Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov (AKA Lenin)

What a coincidence that Earth Day is celebrated on Lenin's birthday.  Vlad did his best to take care of the Earth by fertilizing it with the bodies of millions of Russians who ran afoul of the dictatorship of the proletariat.  That Earth Day was set to coincide with his birthday is deliciously ironic considering how wretchedly polluted Russia is today.

What It's Like Working For The Government

Turn Your Cell Phone Off When You Drive In Michigan

An interesting article in Popular Mechanics notes that Michigan State Police are using digital forensics to search your cell phone when they stop you for a routine traffic violation.  Do you have a Fourth Amendment right against illegal search and seizure when they do this?  It depends--read the article to find out.

And so it goes  Eventually the only safe place to keep data secure will be within your mind.  The best piece of advice would be to stay the hell out of Michigan... and given how badly the state is being managed by the Democratic Party, it won't be long before there's nobody left for them to stop and search.

The Nature of Conflict and Today’s Civilizational War – Part 1

Humanity has engaged in and suffered the consequences of warfare since the beginning of recorded history (and before).  Conflict usually arises from one of the following motivations:

• Honor – You insulted my family/village/clan/people and thus must pay, or you have attacked an ally and I am bound to come to his defense
• Resources – You have land/resources I want
• Power – You are not subject to my rule—but you will be
• Religion – My god tells me that you must follow him and I am his instrument
• Culture – My civilization is the ultimate form of government and life and you deserve to live as part of it (or under it if need be)

As the end result of conflicts usually entailed the death of everyone from combatants to non-combatants and much destruction of property, laws of armed conflict evolved over time to limit the damage.  Our current law of armed conflict (LOAC) is derived from two main sources: Customary international law arising out of the conduct of nations during hostilities and binding upon all nations, and treaty law (also called conventional law) arising from international treaties and only binds those nations that have ratified a particular treaty. 

LOAC limits the effects of the conflict (reduce damages and casualties), protects combatants and noncombatants from unnecessary suffering, safeguards fundamental rights of combatants and noncombatants, prevents the conflict from becoming worse, and makes it easier to restore peace when the conflict is over.  It does this through the following legal principles:

Military necessity – The application of only that degree of regulated force, not otherwise prohibited by the laws of war, required for the partial or complete submission of the enemy with the least expenditure of life, time and physical resources.  Thus, attacks must be limited to military objectives (i.e., any objects which by their nature, location, purpose, or use make an effective contribution to military action and whose total or partial destruction, capture, or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage).

Distinction – The requirement to distinguish/discriminate between military objectives and civilian objects (civilian objects are such objects as places of worship, schools, hospitals, and dwellings, but they can lose their protected status if they are used to make an effective contribution to military action).  An attacker must not intentionally attack civilians or employ methods or means (weapons or tactics) that would cause excessive collateral civilian casualties; however, a defender has an obligation to separate civilians and civilian objects (either in the defender’s country or in an occupied area) from military targets. 

Proportionality – You must take into consideration the extent of civilian destruction and probable casualties that will result and, to the extent consistent with the necessities of the military situation, seek to avoid or minimize such casualties and destruction. Civilian losses must be proportionate to the military advantages sought; however, the attacker need not expose its forces to extraordinary risks simply in order to avoid or minimize civilian losses).

Humanity (also referred to as the principle of unnecessary suffering) – It prohibits the employment of any kind or degree of force that is not necessary for the purposes of war (in other words, achieving the partial or complete submission of the enemy with the least possible expenditure of life, time and physical resources).

An aside:  The concept of “Chivalry” addresses the waging of war in accord with well-recognized formalities and courtesies.  For example, it permits lawful ruses, such as camouflage, false radio signals, and mock troop movements, but it forbids treacherous acts (known legally as “perfidy”). These acts involve the misuse of internationally recognized symbols or status to take unfair advantage of the enemy, such as false surrenders, placing anti-aircraft artillery in hospitals or religious sites, and the misuse of the Red Cross or the Red Crescent (e.g., using ambulances for military purposes to move combatants and arms on a battlefield).

As a combat targeteer, I had to follow these principles very closely.  This is the way of conflict in the West.  We know from hard experience that it is not the way of conflict for radical Islam.

Out of Pocket

My apologies for not posting lately--I've been running an international conference this week.  It ends tomorrow, but have foreign visitors staying over for work on Friday.  I will be so glad when this week is done and I can get some sleep.

The Next 24-48 Hours Will Be Interesting

Qadaffi Duck is being offered a peace settlement which will leave him in place.  Of course, that will satisfy our State Department--at least the half that wants him to stay in power, as compared to the half that wants him to go.  Hamas, after rocketing Israel, is asking Israel to stop the escalating violence.  Maybe if they hadn't started launching rockets in the first place they wouldn't be getting their asses handed to them (again). But both Hamas and Hezbollah have to provide a distraction so that Assad and Iran can try to keep the lid on.  Syria is boiling over (Assad has been killing people left and right--more in the last 24 hours than in the past 2 weeks),and Iran's leader Ack!-My-Dick-Is-Gone must be getting concerned that his forward base is in danger of coming apart.  As Colonel Dan says, watch what happens to oil prices in the next 24-48 hours, as oil traders are paying attention even if our elite leadership isn't.  And isn't it amazing how all the world's problems seem to have disappeared from the media with all the excitement over our political overlords cutting an amazing sub $40 Billion of growth out of our $1.6 Trillion deficit?

Less Than A Week?

Word on the street is that there may be an agreement in Congress to keep the government from shutting down.  As a Department of Defense employee, I must confess to having a direct interest in this battle.  I am a little more than an hour away from being laid off ("furloughed" in government speak).  I spent all today getting my subordinates ready for being furloughed, for, you see, very few of us are considered "essential" to government service despite what the media says about people in the military being exempt.

Well, yes, the active duty military are exempt in the sense that they are required to remain on duty without pay.  I get the 'privilege' of being temporarily fired without pay--which means that I can't even volunteer my time back to the military to continue taking care of my brothers and sisters in arms.

So if we have to go through all of this ass pain, is it too much to ask that it be worth something?  The rumor is that the Republicans have agreed to a cut of $38 Billion or so.  Consider that our government is accruing deficits of $50 Billion a week (hat tip: Ace of Spades), $38 Billion is less than a week's worth of deficit spending and mere pissing in the wind.  This year's non-budget budget of $3.6 Trillion dollars is about $1.6 Trillion worth of deficit spending that we have to borrow to spend.

I am very disappointed that the Republicans didn't start at $360 Billion as a starting point.  Ten percent of the deficit is a small starting point, but would have made a statement.  And it would have made the hours and hours of time we wasted getting ready for this feel like it was worth it.  Instead, our elected representatives are at loggerheads over a mere $21 Billion worth of spending.  At least the lizards are talking about cutting spending now, and are just haggling over the amount (just like the whores some of them are).  And it's not like the Democrats were in charge last year when it was time to pass a budget for this fiscal year... oh wait, they were.  They give assclowns a bad name.

Phrase of the Day/Week/Month/Whenever

I'd sooner lick the dew off of a two week old road kill. - The phrase which quickly leaps to mind when someone higher up in your food chain decides that you are the lucky recipient of a very odorous task.  Can also be used on blind dates when the request for physical activity is more than what you were prepared to entertain.

Reliving The Past

It appears that the elite in this country are partying like it's 1933.  Barack Obama is the incarnation of FDR, and like FDR he is trying to remake the country in his image.  Like the 1930s, the country is in economic meltdown, with signs of a sluggish recovery that will be strangled in its bed if the Democrats' spending isn't reversed.  We are facing turmoil in foreign lands, with mad dictators telling us what they're going to do to us--and again the world turns away hoping that it will all go away if they only just understand the grievances and give the man what he wants.  Russia aids and abets the turmoil while looking to carve a piece of the action for itself, but will find itself in the fire along with the rest.

The difference is that now we face a cultural religious war vice an ideological war (although some can argue that Japanese budo was a religious worship of the emperor, and the Nazi elite followed a corrupt form of occultism and paganism, convinced that God was on their side).  The culture we face now has been in conflict with the west for 2,500 years.  As noted by Jim Lacey in National Review Online and in his book The First Clash, Persia has been attacking Western civilizations long before Islam arrived in the world.  Where Islam made a difference was in fixating an entire culture at the 10-year-old level of emotional maturity.  Every adult "no" from the West (stop stoning women to death, stop mutilating their genitalia, stop subjugating other religions, etc.) is met with a juvenile tantrum, destruction, and killing.  Murdering Christians, Hindus, Ba'hais and destroying their churches and religiously significant artifacts is met with silence, while one idiot burning a Q'uran is met with over 300 murders and beheadings.

We face a culture determined to rule us, afraid to face us in an exchange of ideas, and willing to kill us for over 2,500 years.  Unfortunately, 20% to 40% of our population is more interested in blaming their own culture to avoid the reality facing them--as long as they can keep voting in the gravy train no matter the cost to others.

Winston Churchill faced the same dilemma we face now.  I suspect he wept as much then, too.

"Modern" Classical Music Isn't Classic

Saturday night brought yet another brilliant performance by the San Antonio symphony orchestra.  The program ranged from Glass (Concerto No.2 for Violin and Orchestra) to Handel (Royal Fireworks Music), with Gabriell (Canzon in Echo, Duodecimi Toni, a 10), Rameau (Suite from Nais) and Stravinsky (Concerto in E-flat, "Dumbarton Oaks") for good measure.

It is the Concerto No. 2 for Violin and Orchestra ("American Four Seasons") that is the basis for this screed.  The composer Philip Glass is a member of the 'Minimalist' set, which includes composers such as LaMonte Young, Terry Riley, and Steve Reich.  These musicians appear to believe that atonal dissonance (which they believe is based on Zen Buddhism meditative music--but to my ears is far from it) will stand the test of time.  Sadly, there were portions of his piece which did manage to grip the listener, but then it would descend back into repetitive boredom which I'm sure the composer feels is close to the meditative mantras used to achieve mushin.  A composition that takes me back and forth between "hmmm, that was interesting if strange" and "dear god I wish this was over--my ears are bleeding!" isn't going to have the staying power of 'Eine Kleine Nachtmusik."

No, what strikes me about modern music is that the composers think that melody and rhythm are crutches which must be denied in order to be avant garde.  I spent some time this evening thinking back over the modern compositions I've heard over the decades, and cannot bring one to mind that has the appeal or staying power of compositions by Mozart, Beethoven, Bach, Handel, Copeland, Bernstein, etc.  In my mind, the real composers whose music will stand the test of time and be played and enjoyed by audiences decades or centuries from now are those whose work is used in cinema.

As noted earlier, I can't recall a single modern piece that I would want to listen to again, but I can recall almost instantly the compositions of John Williams, Elmer Bernstein, Quincy Jones, Lalo Schiffrin, Ralph Vaughan-Williams, and Jerry Goldsmith to name just a few.  Long after Philip Glass's compositions are played before live audiences, people will still remember the haunting music of 'Titanic' or the Harry Potter films. 

And if that makes me a provincial buffoon, then so be it.  I know what I like, and it isn't what is jammed into my ears as 'Modern' music.