The Nature of Conflict and Today’s Civilizational War – Part 2

In addition to the cultural war between the West and extremist Islam, there is also a war churning within the Middle East between Arab and Persian cultures under the cover of protests against ‘oppressive governments.’  For 2,500 years, Persia/Iran has been attempting to bring the Middle East (and the rest of the world) under its control.  Just two days ago, an Iranian diplomat was ordered to leave Bahrain for engaging in espionage.

While ostensibly protests around the Middle East have been pro-democracy focused, the common thread throughout these is the behind-the-scenes actions of Islamic extremists riding (and in some cases guiding) the wave of populist revolt against leaders who were intent on preventing its spread. Since mid-January we have seen the ousting of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali (14 January), Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (11 February), and the soon to be ousting Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.  Libyan leader Muamar Gaddafhi is in the midst of a civil war aimed at his departure extremism. 

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood, long suppressed by Mubarak, is now out in the open and starting a political party to take part in the next elections.  Over 100,000 protested in Yemen’s capital Sana’a, a country fighting one of the most active Al Qaeda offshoots in the world, a secessionist uprising in the south, and a Shi’ite rebellion in the north.  In Libya, Al Qaeda operatives are among the ‘rebel’ fighters attempting to remove Gaddafhi who has spent decades stamping out extremists.  In moves certain to concern Israel, 70 Islamist hardliners were arrested in Jordan after wounding 83 police in attacks.

This rapid spread of protests has been termed the “Tunisian Virus.”  The number and rapidity of such protests is somewhat surprising, and one is tempted to ask, “Qui bono?”  From my perspective, the country which benefits most is Iran.

The spreading populist revolution, however, is a double edged sword.  Iran looks to Syria to be its proxy in the Middle East and the hammer against Israel.  In Syria, a country in which Hafez al-Assad had no qualms about killing thousands of Muslim Brotherhood followers, protests against his son’s government began on 26 January.  Today at least 23 protesters were killed after Friday prayers.  Of significance, a statue of Hafez al-Assad was torn down in a move similar to Iraqis tearing down the statues of Saddam.  Assad the younger has had to use military forces to put down current protests, further inflaming the populace.  If Syria goes down, then Iran loses a significant ally and base to support Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as a blow to its ability to influence events.  The rising protests within Iran itself against Ahmedinejad’s regime (hundreds of thousands protesting in the streets) add even more pressure to act quickly to achieve success.

A potential sign of this pressure’s effect is Hamas and Fatah, after four years of internecine conflict, have made up and are forming a caretaker government until elections can be held.  This turn of events places a dagger at the throat of Israel.  If Egypt follows through with threats by various Presidential candidates to end the peace, then expect Israel to react rapidly and vigorously.

The question is whether or not Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will win the race against his own internal opposition before the extremist beast unleashed in the rest of the Middle East consumes the rest of the governments opposed to him.